Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Playoff Scenario heading into Week 13

WHAT WE KNOW

We know that Hit Squad (12-0, West Champs) is the #1 seed and Part Time Pimps (10-2, East Champs) are the #2 seed, and they will have Week 14 off. I'm sure they will undoubtedly spend their vacation on a weekend ski trip, so they can snuggle with each other by the fire. Congrats homos. Hit Squad receives $170 for their troubles, and PTP receives $150. By the way, it's a completely meaningless game, but they play each other in Week 13. That is, if you consider Holland trying to be the first to go 13-0 meaningless.

We also know that BC Bombers, Notorious RVG, and Lizard Kings (all 8-4) have all clinched a playoff spot. See below for their breakdown.


CENTRAL SHAKEDOWN - 3, 4, 5 SEEDS

Now for the meat and potatoes section of the playoffs. We know who the #3, #4, and #5 seeds are, we just don't know in which order they'll fall. And they are the three teams tied atop the Central at 8-4 - B.C. Bombers, Lizard Kings, and Notorious RVG. All formidable foes. Regardless, they've already clinched that they're going to be playing in Week 14, so basically the main prize here is the money for the division ($130 as opposed to $70 or $60), as well as the #3 seed's privelege of playing the #6 seed, a considerable dropoff this season. And the two non-division winners will play each other in the 4 vs. 5 Wild Card game in Week 14. Here's how it will shake down:

BCB and RVG play each other in Week 13, so that simplifies things somewhat. The loser of that game will be 8-5 and will not win the division.

Lizard Kings play Blue Dogs. If they lose, they won't win the division, and the winner of BCB-RVG wins it. For simplicity's sake, let's hope Lizard Kings lose.

However, if LK wins... we will have a tiebreaker situation. If BCB beats RVG, LK will win the division based on the head-to-head tiebreaker (LK swept BCB). If RVG wins, we will have to go to the 3rd tiebreaker, total points (LK and RVG split, and they will both have a 5-3 division record). As of now, RVG has a 76-point lead over LK...so unless LK goes completely apeshit, it looks like an RVG-LK tie will go to RVG.

To summarize:

  • LK wins, RVG wins = RVG wins division (probably).
  • LK wins, BCB wins = LK wins division.
  • LK loses, RVG wins = RVG wins division.
  • LK loses, BCB wins = BCB wins division.


Whoever is the 4 or 5 seed doesn't matter, except for the purposes of money, as they'll be playing each other anyway.

#6 SEED - 4 DOPES

Here, we have 4 teams fighting for 1 spot. Razen Kanes and Mud Dogs are both 6-6, while Dragons and Dead Beats are both 5-7 (amazingly still alive).

Razen Kanes (6-6) play Dragons (5-7) in Week 13. Also, Mud Dogs (6-6) take on BPM, while Dead Beats (5-7) take on Meatballs.

Obviously, either RK or MD can take the #6 seed by winning and the other losing. However, if they both win, we have to go to the total points tiebreaker, since they did not meet during the season. And as of now, RK leads MD by a slim margin, of only 6 points, 1033-1027. The next tiebreaker after that is Most Points Against (strength of schedule) - this according to the Constitution on the IFL web site. MD has 1121 PA, RK has 1092 PA.

Now, regarding the two 5-7 teams (Dragons/DB), obviously, if one of the 6-6 teams win, they're both out regardless. Or if they lose themselves, they're obviously out. The only possible way these two dopes would become involved in a tiebreaker is if they win and both RK and MD lose (Dragons play RK, remember, so that game would complete 33% of the equation). So there would have to be at least a 3-way tiebreaker. And since both RK and MD would be involved, and they didn't play each other, the tiebreaker would be - highest total points amongst all teams tied at 6-7. And surprisingly, the 5-7 teams hold that advantage as of now. Here's how it stacks up after 12 weeks:

Dragons 1128
Dead Beats 1105
Razen Kanes 1033
Mud Dogs 1027

To summarize:

MD wins, RK wins = tiebreaker decides #6 seed
MD wins, RK loses = MD is #6 seed
MD loses, RK wins = RK is #6 seed
MD and RK lose, Dragons win, DB loses = 3-way total pts tiebreaker decides #6 seed (MD/RK/Drag)
MD and RK lose, Dragons and DB win = 4-way total pts tiebreaker decides #6 seed (MD/RK/Drag/DB)

It's that simple.

And I almost forgot, here's the Playoff Money breakdown, by seed:

1 - $170 (Hit Squad)
2 - $150 (PTP)
3 - $130
4 - $70
5 - $60
6 - $50

IFL Champion = $400
Runner-up = $140

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