Lizard Kings lead PTP by 2, LK has Pitt DEF and PTP has Big Ben. Too close to call, even though Ben could have a nice game, they are playing Miami, so you can make a case for Pitt D to go off. This would score John E. huge grinch points, as PTP would pull into a tie for 1st place in the West with a win.
Also, Hit Squad leads Mud Dogs by 3, but MD has Hines Ward and Jeff Reed, so it is likely that they will win, so we're going to give him the victory for now (and if we jinx Mike P., oh well!).
So the preliminary Week 12 results are-
CTRU over Dead Beats
Mud Dogs over Hit Squad
BCB over RVG
Napalm Death over Meatballs
Ballbusters over Razen Kanes
9 Fingers over Dragons
Lizard Kings vs. PTP - TBD
Who's IN the playoffs
- BC Bombers (8-4, East champs)
- Napalm Death (9-3)
- Chinese Toys R Us (9-3)
Who's OUT
- Lizard Kings
- Dead Beats
- Hit Squad
- Ballbusters
- Mighty Meatballs
- Dragons
- Notorious RVG
Hanging in the Balance by a Ballhair (1 of these 4 will NOT get in)
- 9 Fingers
- Mud Dogs
- Part Time Pimps
- Razen Kanes
DIVISION RACES
In the East, BCB (8-4) has clinched the division thanks to their win over RVG.
In the Central, Napalm Death and CTRU (each 9-3) are tied for 1st, but ND has the tiebreaker thanks to his better division record (6-1 vs. 5-2), and controls their own density. An ND win (vs. Ballbusters) in Week 13 gives Devo the division and the #1 seed. The only way CTRU can win the division is a combination of a Week 13 CTRU win (vs. 9 Fingers) and an ND loss. Whichever of these two does NOT win the division will definitely be the #4 seed.
In the West, Razen Kanes lost, so they are only 0.5 games ahead of PTP, so that game is huge tonight. If PTP wins, they will be tied for 1st place. Next week's games feature PTP vs. Dragons and RK vs. Dead Beats. The tiebreakers between PTP and RK will likely go to the 3rd tiebreaker, total points, which PTP currently leads by 20 (not including tonight's points). So PTP has the edge there. However, if PTP loses tonight, Razen Kanes will clinch the West division, because they will win the 2nd tiebreaker, division record (RK is 5-1, PTP would be 3-2 with a loss).
As for the byes, it is essentially a lock that BCB and the Central winner will be the top 2 seeds. BCB can gain the #1 seed, only by winning next week, AND with both ND and CTRU losses. This would bring them into a tie w/ ND at 8-5, and BCB defeated ND during the season so they would have the tiebreaker over them. Otherwise, as long as the Central winner wins his game next week, they are the #1 seed and BCB are the #2. The West winner will most likely not have a bye, since it will come down to a tiebreaker with BCB, and neither Kanes nor PTP played BCB during the season, so it would go to the total points tiebreaker, which BCB should win comfortably against either of them.
WILD CARDS
The 2nd place finisher in the Central is a guarantee for the #4 seed, so we only have 2 more wild card spots to fight over. And it will be between these teams:
the 2nd place West team (either PTP or RK)
9 Fingers (7-5)
Mud Dogs (6-5-1)
Everyone else is eliminated. So all you 5-7 teams can start shining up your bowling shoes - Ballbusters, Meatballs, Dragons.... and Notorious RVG (5-6-1) is also eliminated because of the head-to-head tiebreaker against Mud Dogs.
Also, 9 Fingers clinches a wild card spot if PTP loses their game tonight.
If PTP wins tonight, that would put them in a tie for 1st place in the West w/ Razen Kanes at 7-5, and tied in the WC race with 9 Fingers (7-5). If all 3 of these teams win next week and go to 8-5, they're all IN the playoffs and Mud Dogs stay home. However, if Mud Dogs win (vs. Lizard Kings), and ANY of the 7-5 teams lose, Mud Dogs will be IN the playoffs at 7-5-1.
As for tiebreakers between PTP, Kanes, and 9F.... PTP and Kanes won't need a wild card tiebreaker, since one of them will win the division. 9F owns the tiebreaker over PTP thanks to their head-to-head win in Week 3. If RK and 9F need a tiebreaker, it will come down to total points since they didn't play each other this year - 9F currently owns a 115-point edge, so they will likely win that tiebreaker. Furthermore, the only way 9F does NOT get in, is if PTP wins tonight, and 9F loses to CTRU next week (likely), and PTP and RK both win next week.
So if PTP (vs. Dragons) and 9F (vs. CTRU) both win next week, they're IN - 9F would be the #5 seed, PTP would be #6. If Mud Dogs win (vs. Lizard Kings), they would need either 9F and/or PTP to lose to get into the playoffs. If Mud Dogs win and both 9F and PTP lose, Mud Dogs would be the #5 seed and 9F would be the #6 seed due to the tiebreaker.
Now....if PTP loses tonight, it's more cut and dry, and it clinches playoff spots for 2 teams... Razen Kanes win the West and the #3 seed, and 9 Fingers clinch a wild card spot. That also means PTP would be 6-6 and will need a win next week (vs. Dragons) AND a Mud Dogs loss. A PTP loss or a Mud Dogs win would eliminate PTP from the playoffs because of the tiebreaker vs. 9F.
Confused yet? Wait until PTP and Lizard Kings tie tonight, and then someone else ties next week.
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